The Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, has called a snap general election and there are significant changes for the residents of Reading and its environs from the last election thanks to significant boundary changes (see the maps and information below). Along with the political climate in the area, this is likely to result in considerable changes to how Reading is represented in Westminster. But will this mean any difference to locals?

Boundary changes in the UK for general elections occur primarily to ensure fair and effective representation. These changes address population shifts, aiming to keep constituencies equal in terms of the number of eligible voters.

Recent changes have aimed to create constituencies with an electorate as close to 75,000 as possible with a variation of +/- 5%. Legal mandates require the Boundary Commission to conduct reviews every 8-12 years, using the latest census data and electoral registers to update constituency boundaries. At the time of the last review in 2023 only three Berkshire constituencies (Reading East, Reading West, and Windsor) were within the permitted electorate range of no fewer than 69,724 electors and no more than 77,062. All of the remaining constituencies were above the upper limit, hence the recent changes.

Using available data, it does seem that an area that was once all blue up until the 2017 election, and then received a mere splattering of red after the election of Matt Rodda in place of Rob Wilson in Reading East, is set to become a somewhat larger island of Labour representatives. All three constituencies representing the town are predicted to swing towards Labour.

Here is a run down of local constituencies with predicted results according to Electoral Calculus and the extrapolated results from the last election for the new constituencies as presented by The Guardian. But who knows what will happen on the day? That is down to you to decide.

 

Reading Central

This is a new constituency, largely replacing Reading East, with Labour’s Matt Rodda as incumbent. It encompasses most of central Reading, including Abbey, Battle, Caversham, Katesgrove, Mapledurham, Minster, Park, Peppard, Redlands, Southcote, and Thames wards. Battle, Minster and Southcote are moving from the Reading West constituency, whilst other areas south and east of the town are moving to the new Woodley & Earley constituency.

 

Dave McElroy   Green                                (10.0% predicted vote)

Matt Rodda     Labour                                (56.3% predicted vote)           

Raj Singh   Conservative                           (21.6% predicted vote)

Henry Wright   Liberal Democrats              (3.8% predicted vote)                                              

Adam Gillman   TUSC                               (1.6% predicted vote)              

Andy Williams  Reform UK                         (7.5% predicted vote)

Michael Turberville  Independent               (prediction unavailable)

 

According to The Guardian this recently safe Labour seat would have seen a majority increase of 48.5% to 52.6% for Matt Rodda.

 

Reading West and Mid Berkshire

Another new constituency based on the former Reading West, where Sir Alok Sharma is retiring. A considerable swing is predicted in this area towards Labour.

Adrian Abbs  Independent                     (1.6 % predicted vote)

Helen Belcher    Liberal Democrats       (9.4% predicted vote)

Carolyne Culver  Green                         (5.1% predicted vote)

Olivia Bailey   Labour                             (42.4% predicted vote)

Ross Mackinnon   Conservative            (29.5% predicted vote)

Kate Bosley  Reform                              (12.1% predicted vote)

According to The Guardian, based on voting from the last general election, this constituency would have been a very safe Conservative seat with votes increasing from 48.4% to 56.8% if the results were extrapolated.

 

Earley & Woodley

Yet another new constituency representing our leafy suburbs, which used to largely come under the Wokingham constituency of Sir John Redwood. Again, it looks like a swing to Labour is probable here.

The constituency includes the Reading wards of Church and Whitley, plus the Wokingham wards of Bulmershe and Whitegates; Coronation; Hawkedon; Hillside; Loddon; Maiden Erlegh; Shinfield North; Shinfield South; Sonning and South Lake.

 

Pauline Jorgensen   Conservative      (29.0 % predicted vote)

Yuan Yang   Labour                            (42.2 % predicted vote)

Tahir Maher   Liberal Democrats        (10.5 % predicted vote)

Alastair Hunter    SDP                         (2.5 % predicted vote)

Louise Keane  Green                          (6.0 % predicted vote)

Malcolm Tullett   Reform                      (9.8 % predicted vote)

According to The Guardian at the last election this constituency would have returned a Tory MP on 48.8% of the vote, way ahead of Labour on 26.7%.